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LVA Lettország - Virsliga · Round 25 ·

BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums 2000

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hazai form
Projected score2–12.88 expected goals
Vendég form
Hazai győzelem45%
Döntetlen27%
Vendég győzelem28%
Full model forecastHazai győzelemTier A · 45% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHazai győzelem45% selection probability
Projected score2–1BFC DaugavpilsTukums 2000
Expected goals2.88Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Felett55% for the selected side
Mindkét csapat szerez góltIgen57% for the selected side
Expected corners9.0Alatt 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketVálasztásValószínűségValós odds
45% / 27% / 28%Mérkőzés eredményeHazai győzelem45%2.22
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (27.4%)Dupla esély1272.6%1.38
Felett 55% · Alatt 45%Goals 2.5Felett55%1.82
Igen 57% · Nem 43%Mindkét csapat szerez góltIgen57%1.75
2.88 total expected goalsPontos eredmény2–1
9.0 expected match cornersSzögletekAlatt 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nem snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityValós odds
BFC Daugavpils win45%2.22
Döntetlen27%3.70
Tukums 2000 win28%3.57

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

BFC Daugavpils1.72

Hazai share of expected goals 59.7%

Total expected goals2.88Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Felett 55% · Alatt 45%

Tukums 20001.16

Vendég share of expected goals 40.3%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitIgen 57% · Nem 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hazai-context · form sequence

BFC Daugavpils

1.80pts / match
Lejátszott5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Pontok9

SignalHazai won 3/5

Vendég-context · form sequence

Tukums 2000

0.60pts / match
Lejátszott5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Pontok3

SignalHazai matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
45%
Nyert probability excluding draw
28%
9
Points from supplied form
3
1.72
Expected goals
1.16
BFC DaugavpilsTukums 2000
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01BFC Daugavpils signalHazai won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Tukums 2000 signalHazai matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk55% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Döntetlen probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums 2000 FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hazai győzelem · Projected score 2–1 · 45% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

BFC Daugavpils nyer 45%,Döntetlen 27%,Tukums 2000 nyer 28%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.88 · 2.5 felett 55% · Current selection Felett