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LVA Lettland - Virsliga · Round 25 ·

BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums 2000

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score2–12.88 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg45%
Unentschieden27%
Auswärtssieg28%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 45% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg45% selection probability
Projected score2–1BFC DaugavpilsTukums 2000
Expected goals2.88Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Über55% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenJa57% for the selected side
Expected corners9.0Unter 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
45% / 27% / 28%SpielergebnisHeimsieg45%2.22
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (27.4%)Doppelte Chance1272.6%1.38
Über 55% · Unter 45%Goals 2.5Über55%1.82
Ja 57% · Nein 43%Beide Teams treffenJa57%1.75
2.88 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis2–1
9.0 expected match cornersEckenUnter 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nein snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFaire Quote
BFC Daugavpils win45%2.22
Unentschieden27%3.70
Tukums 2000 win28%3.57

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

BFC Daugavpils1.72

Heim share of expected goals 59.7%

Total expected goals2.88Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Über 55% · Unter 45%

Tukums 20001.16

Auswärts share of expected goals 40.3%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 57% · Nein 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

BFC Daugavpils

1.80pts / match
Gespielt5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Punkte9

SignalHeim won 3/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Tukums 2000

0.60pts / match
Gespielt5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Punkte3

SignalHeim matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
45%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
28%
9
Points from supplied form
3
1.72
Expected goals
1.16
BFC DaugavpilsTukums 2000
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01BFC Daugavpils signalHeim won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Tukums 2000 signalHeim matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk55% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums 2000 FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 2–1 · 45% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

BFC Daugavpils Gewinn 45%,Unentschieden 27%,Tukums 2000 Gewinn 28%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.88 · Über 2.5 55% · Current selection Über