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INT Finland Ykkosliiga · Round 17 ·

JaPS vs MP

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–12.21 expected goals
Away form
Home win40%
Draw28%
Away win32%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 40% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win40% selection probability
Projected score1–1JaPSMP
Expected goals2.21Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under62% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo55% for the selected side
Expected corners10.7Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
40% / 28% / 32%Match resultHome win40%2.50
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (27.9%)Double chance1272.1%1.39
Over 38% · Under 62%Goals 2.5Under62%1.61
Yes 45% · No 55%Both teams scoreNo55%1.82
2.21 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
10.7 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin9.5%Largest probability gapJaPS winDifference-0.6 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
JaPS win40%2.502.2540.6%-0.6 pp
Draw28%3.573.3027.7%+0.3 pp
MP win32%3.132.8831.7%+0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

JaPS1.07

Home share of expected goals 48.4%

Total expected goals2.21Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 38% · Under 62%

MP1.14

Away share of expected goals 51.6%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 45% · No 55%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

JaPS

1.80pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Points9

SignalHome won 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

MP

1.60pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Points8

SignalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
40%
Win probability excluding draw
32%
9
Points from supplied form
8
1.07
Expected goals
1.14
JaPSMP
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01JaPS signalHome won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02MP signalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk60% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

JaPS vs MP FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 1–1 · 40% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

JaPS win 40%,Draw 28%,MP win 32%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.21 · Over 2.5 38% · Current selection Under