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ESP Spain Copa Federacion · Fixture ·

Toledo vs CD Guadalajara S.A.D.

Market-based forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–12.59 expected goals
Away form
Home win28%
Draw27%
Away win45%
Market-based forecastAway winTier B · 45% selection probability
Market-based forecast · Tier B

Match prediction

Market-led fallback leans AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win45% selection probability
Projected score1–1ToledoCD Guadalajara S.A.D.
Expected goals2.59Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under52% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes53% for the selected side
Expected corners8.3Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
28% / 27% / 45%Match resultAway win45%2.22
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (27.3%)Double chance1272.7%1.38
Over 48% · Under 52%Goals 2.5Under52%1.92
Yes 53% · No 47%Both teams scoreYes53%1.89
2.59 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
8.3 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Reference market used for this forecast

This market-based forecast is aligned to the normalized pre-match 1X2 reference. The comparison is contextual and makes no betting-edge claim.

Displayed margin11.2%Forecast sourceMarket-basedEdge claimNone
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Toledo win28%3.573.5025.7%
Draw27%3.703.3027.2%
CD Guadalajara S.A.D. win45%2.221.9147.1%

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Toledo1.20

Home share of expected goals 46.3%

Total expected goals2.59Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 48% · Under 52%

CD Guadalajara S.A.D.1.39

Away share of expected goals 53.7%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 53% · No 47%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Toledo

1.60pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Points8

SignalHome unbeaten 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

CD Guadalajara S.A.D.

1.00pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Points5

SignalHome clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
28%
Win probability excluding draw
45%
8
Points from supplied form
5
1.20
Expected goals
1.39
ToledoCD Guadalajara S.A.D.
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-led fallback leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Toledo signalHome unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02CD Guadalajara S.A.D. signalHome clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk55% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Toledo vs CD Guadalajara S.A.D. FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–1 · 45% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Toledo win 28%,Draw 27%,CD Guadalajara S.A.D. win 45%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.59 · Over 2.5 48% · Current selection Under