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INT Portugal Liga 3 · Fixture ·

AD Marco 09 vs Pacos Ferreira

Market-based forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–12.29 expected goals
Away form
Home win31%
Draw27%
Away win42%
Market-based forecastAway winTier B · 42% selection probability
Market-based forecast · Tier B

Match prediction

Market-led fallback leans AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win42% selection probability
Projected score1–1AD Marco 09Pacos Ferreira
Expected goals2.29Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under60% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo54% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
31% / 27% / 42%Match resultAway win42%2.38
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (27.4%)Double chance1272.6%1.38
Over 40% · Under 60%Goals 2.5Under60%1.67
Yes 46% · No 54%Both teams scoreNo54%1.85
2.29 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
9.7 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Reference market used for this forecast

This market-based forecast is aligned to the normalized pre-match 1X2 reference. The comparison is contextual and makes no betting-edge claim.

Displayed margin11.3%Forecast sourceMarket-basedEdge claimNone
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
AD Marco 09 win31%3.233.0030%
Draw27%3.703.3027.2%
Pacos Ferreira win42%2.382.1042.8%

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

AD Marco 091.08

Home share of expected goals 47.2%

Total expected goals2.29Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 40% · Under 60%

Pacos Ferreira1.21

Away share of expected goals 52.8%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 46% · No 54%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

AD Marco 09

1.80pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn3Losses0Points9

SignalHome unbeaten 5/5

Away-context · form sequence

Pacos Ferreira

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
31%
Win probability excluding draw
42%
9
Points from supplied form
7
1.08
Expected goals
1.21
AD Marco 09Pacos Ferreira
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-led fallback leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01AD Marco 09 signalHome unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Pacos Ferreira signalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk58% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

AD Marco 09 vs Pacos Ferreira FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–1 · 42% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

AD Marco 09 win 31%,Draw 27%,Pacos Ferreira win 42%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.29 · Over 2.5 40% · Current selection Under