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INT Australien - Victoria Premier League 1 · Spiel ·

FC Melbourne Srbija vs North Geelong

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score2–12.63 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg56%
Unentschieden22%
Auswärtssieg22%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 56% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg56% selection probability
Projected score2–1FC Melbourne SrbijaNorth Geelong
Expected goals2.63Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Unter51% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenNein52% for the selected side
Expected corners10.9Über 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
56% / 22% / 22%SpielergebnisHeimsieg56%1.79
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (22%)Doppelte Chance1278%1.28
Über 49% · Unter 51%Goals 2.5Unter51%1.96
Ja 48% · Nein 52%Beide Teams treffenNein52%1.92
2.63 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis2–1
10.9 expected match cornersEckenÜber 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.8%Largest probability gapNorth Geelong winDifference-0.9 pp
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
FC Melbourne Srbija win56%1.791.6255.2%+0.8 pp
Unentschieden22%4.554.1021.8%+0.2 pp
North Geelong win22%4.553.9022.9%-0.9 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FC Melbourne Srbija1.77

Heim share of expected goals 67.3%

Total expected goals2.63Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Über 49% · Unter 51%

North Geelong0.86

Auswärts share of expected goals 32.7%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 48% · Nein 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

FC Melbourne Srbija

1.80pts / match
Gespielt5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Punkte9

SignalHeim won 3/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

North Geelong

0.20pts / match
Gespielt5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Punkte1

SignalHeim failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
56%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
22%
9
Points from supplied form
1
1.77
Expected goals
0.86
FC Melbourne SrbijaNorth Geelong
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FC Melbourne Srbija signalHeim won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02North Geelong signalHeim failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk44% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 22%.

Match questions

FC Melbourne Srbija vs North Geelong FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 2–1 · 56% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FC Melbourne Srbija Gewinn 56%,Unentschieden 22%,North Geelong Gewinn 22%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.63 · Über 2.5 49% · Current selection Unter