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ARG Argentina Liga Profesional · Match ·

Tigre vs River Plate

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score1–11.89 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger28%
Oavgjort33%
Bortaseger39%
Full model forecastBortasegerTier A · 39% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callBortaseger39% selection probability
Projected score1–1TigreRiver Plate
Expected goals1.89Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under71% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målNej63% for the selected side
Expected corners8.6Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
28% / 33% / 39%MatchresultatBortaseger39%2.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Tigre win (28.1%)DubbelchansX271.9%1.39
Över 29% · Under 71%Goals 2.5Under71%1.41
Ja 37% · Nej 63%Båda lagen gör målNej63%1.59
1.89 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
8.6 expected match cornersHörnorUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.0%Largest probability gapTigre winDifference+0.8 pp
OutcomePrognosRättvist oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Tigre win28%3.573.5027.2%+0.8 pp
Oavgjort33%3.032.8833.1%-0.1 pp
River Plate win39%2.562.4039.7%-0.7 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Tigre1.06

Hemma share of expected goals 56.1%

Total expected goals1.89Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Över 29% · Under 71%

River Plate0.83

Borta share of expected goals 43.9%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 37% · Nej 63%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Tigre

1.40pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Poäng7

SignalHemma matches over 2.5: 3/5

Borta-context · form sequence

River Plate

0.60pts / match
Spelade5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Poäng3

SignalHemma clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
28%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
39%
7
Points from supplied form
3
1.06
Expected goals
0.83
TigreRiver Plate
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Tigre signalHemma matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02River Plate signalHemma clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk61% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 33%.

Match questions

Tigre vs River Plate FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Bortaseger · Projected score 1–1 · 39% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Tigre vunnen 28%,Oavgjort 33%,River Plate vunnen 39%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.89 · Över 2.5 29% · Current selection Under