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SRB Serbia Prva Liga · Meci ·

FK Graficar Beograd vs Smederevo

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gazde form
Projected score1–11.85 expected goals
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde44%
Egal30%
Victorie oaspeți26%
Full model forecastVictorie gazdeTier A · 44% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie gazde44% selection probability
Projected score1–1FK Graficar BeogradSmederevo
Expected goals1.85Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Sub72% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăNu64% for the selected side
Expected corners8.6Sub 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
44% / 30% / 26%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie gazde44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Smederevo win (25.7%)Șansă dublă1X74.3%1.35
Peste 28% · Sub 72%Goals 2.5Sub72%1.39
Da 36% · Nu 64%Ambele echipe marcheazăNu64%1.56
1.85 total expected goalsScor corect1–1
8.6 expected match cornersCornereSub 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.9%Largest probability gapFK Graficar Beograd winDifference-0.7 pp
OutcomePredicțieCotă corectăReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
FK Graficar Beograd win44%2.272.0044.7%-0.7 pp
Egal30%3.333.0029.8%+0.2 pp
Smederevo win26%3.853.5025.5%+0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FK Graficar Beograd1.03

Gazde share of expected goals 55.7%

Total expected goals1.85Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Peste 28% · Sub 72%

Smederevo0.82

Oaspeți share of expected goals 44.3%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitDa 36% · Nu 64%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

FK Graficar Beograd

0.60pts / match
Jucate5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Puncte3

SignalGazde matches under 2.5: 5/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

Smederevo

2.00pts / match
Jucate5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Puncte10

SignalGazde failed to score: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
44%
Câștig probability excluding draw
26%
3
Points from supplied form
10
1.03
Expected goals
0.82
FK Graficar BeogradSmederevo
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FK Graficar Beograd signalGazde matches under 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Smederevo signalGazde failed to score: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

FK Graficar Beograd vs Smederevo FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie gazde · Projected score 1–1 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FK Graficar Beograd câștig 44%,Egal 30%,Smederevo câștig 26%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.85 · Peste 2.5 28% · Current selection Sub