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MEX Mexico Liga de Expansion · Round 3 ·

Atletico Morelia vs Cancún FC

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Mandante form
Projected score1–12.13 expected goals
Visitante form
Vitória da casa49%
Empate27%
Vitória visitante24%
Full model forecastVitória da casaTier A · 49% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVitória da casa49% selection probability
Projected score1–1Atletico MoreliaCancún FC
Expected goals2.13Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Abaixo64% for the selected side
Ambas as equipes marcamNão57% for the selected side
Expected corners9.5Abaixo 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSeleçãoProbabilidadeOdds justas
49% / 27% / 24%Resultado da partidaVitória da casa49%2.04
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Cancún FC win (24.1%)Dupla Chance1X75.9%1.32
Acima 36% · Abaixo 64%Goals 2.5Abaixo64%1.56
Sim 43% · Não 57%Ambas as equipes marcamNão57%1.75
2.13 total expected goalsPlacar exato1–1
9.5 expected match cornersEscanteiosAbaixo 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.9%Largest probability gapAtletico Morelia winDifference-0.4 pp
OutcomePrevisãoOdds justasReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Atletico Morelia win49%2.041.9149.4%-0.4 pp
Empate27%3.703.5027%0.0 pp
Cancún FC win24%4.174.0023.6%+0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Atletico Morelia1.16

Mandante share of expected goals 54.5%

Total expected goals2.13Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Acima 36% · Abaixo 64%

Cancún FC0.97

Visitante share of expected goals 45.5%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitSim 43% · Não 57%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Mandante-context · form sequence

Atletico Morelia

1.20pts / match
Jogos5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Pontos6

SignalMandante failed to score: 3/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Cancún FC

1.00pts / match
Jogos5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Pontos5

SignalVisitante matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
49%
Ganhou probability excluding draw
24%
6
Points from supplied form
5
1.16
Expected goals
0.97
Atletico MoreliaCancún FC
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Atletico Morelia signalMandante failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Cancún FC signalVisitante matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk51% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Atletico Morelia vs Cancún FC FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vitória da casa · Projected score 1–1 · 49% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Atletico Morelia ganhou 49%,Empate 27%,Cancún FC ganhou 24%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.13 · Acima 2.5 36% · Current selection Abaixo