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FRA Frankrijk - Ligue 2 · Round 3 ·

Rodez vs Pau

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score2–13.31 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst51%
Gelijkspel25%
Uitwinst24%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 51% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst51% selection probability
Projected score2–1RodezPau
Expected goals3.31Openen match profile
Goals 2.5Boven64% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenJa61% for the selected side
Expected corners9.4Onder 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
51% / 25% / 24%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst51%1.96
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Pau win (24.1%)Dubbele Kans1X75.9%1.32
Boven 64% · Onder 36%Goals 2.5Boven64%1.56
Ja 61% · Nee 39%Beide teams scorenJa61%1.64
3.31 total expected goalsExacte score2–1
9.4 expected match cornersHoekschoppenOnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nee snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityEerlijke odds
Rodez win51%1.96
Gelijkspel25%4.00
Pau win24%4.17

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Rodez2.14

Thuis share of expected goals 64.7%

Total expected goals3.31Openen

Dedicated goals model: Boven 64% · Onder 36%

Pau1.17

Uit share of expected goals 35.3%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 61% · Nee 39%Match profileOpenen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Rodez

2.40pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Punten12

SignalThuis unbeaten 4/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Pau

0.60pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Punten3

SignalThuis matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
51%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
24%
12
Points from supplied form
3
2.14
Expected goals
1.17
RodezPau
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Rodez signalThuis unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Pau signalThuis matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk49% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Rodez vs Pau FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 2–1 · 51% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Rodez gewonnen 51%,Gelijkspel 25%,Pau gewonnen 24%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.31 · Boven 2.5 64% · Current selection Boven