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AGF Aarhus vs Benfica

Baseline forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score2–12.65 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst46%
Gelijkspel26%
Uitwinst29%
Baseline forecastThuiswinstTier C · 46% selection probability
Baseline forecast · Tier C

Match prediction

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst46% selection probability
Projected score2–1AGF AarhusBenfica
Expected goals2.65Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Onder51% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenJa53% for the selected side
Expected corners9.8Boven 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
46% / 26% / 29%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst46%2.17
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (25.6%)Dubbele Kans1274.4%1.34
Boven 49% · Onder 51%Goals 2.5Onder51%1.96
Ja 53% · Nee 47%Beide teams scorenJa53%1.89
2.65 total expected goalsExacte score2–1
9.8 expected match cornersHoekschoppenBoven 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nee snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityEerlijke odds
AGF Aarhus win46%2.17
Gelijkspel26%3.85
Benfica win29%3.45

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

AGF Aarhus1.51

Thuis share of expected goals 57%

Total expected goals2.65Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Boven 49% · Onder 51%

Benfica1.14

Uit share of expected goals 43%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 53% · Nee 47%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

AGF Aarhus

0.60pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins0Drawn3Losses2Punten3

SignalThuis matches over 2.5: 4/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Benfica

2.20pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Punten11

SignalUit unbeaten 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
46%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
29%
3
Points from supplied form
11
1.51
Expected goals
1.14
AGF AarhusBenfica
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01AGF Aarhus signalThuis matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Benfica signalUit unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk54% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

AGF Aarhus vs Benfica FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 2–1 · 46% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

AGF Aarhus gewonnen 46%,Gelijkspel 26%,Benfica gewonnen 29%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.65 · Boven 2.5 49% · Current selection Onder