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PRT Portugal Segunda Liga · Round 1 ·

UD Leiria vs Tondela

Market-based forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score1–12.43 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier39%
Uavgjort29%
Borteseier32%
Market-based forecastHjemmeseierTier B · 39% selection probability
Market-based forecast · Tier B

Match prediction

Market-led fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier39% selection probability
Projected score1–1UD LeiriaTondela
Expected goals2.43Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under56% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerJa50% for the selected side
Expected corners9.0Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
39% / 29% / 32%KampresultatHjemmeseier39%2.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.4%)Dobbel sjanse1270.6%1.42
Over 44% · Under 56%Goals 2.5Under56%1.79
Ja 50% · Nei 50%Begge lag scorerJa50%2.00
2.43 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
9.0 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Reference market used for this forecast

This market-based forecast is aligned to the normalized pre-match 1X2 reference. The comparison is contextual and makes no betting-edge claim.

Displayed margin12.5%Forecast sourceMarket-basedEdge claimIngen
OutcomePrognoseRettferdig oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
UD Leiria win39%2.562.3038.6%
Uavgjort29%3.453.0029.6%
Tondela win32%3.132.8031.7%

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

UD Leiria1.28

Hjemme share of expected goals 52.7%

Total expected goals2.43Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 44% · Under 56%

Tondela1.15

Borte share of expected goals 47.3%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 50% · Nei 50%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

UD Leiria

0.80pts / match
Spilt5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Poeng4

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

Borte-context · form sequence

Tondela

0.60pts / match
Spilt5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Poeng3

SignalBorte matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
39%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
32%
4
Points from supplied form
3
1.28
Expected goals
1.15
UD LeiriaTondela
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-led fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01UD Leiria signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Tondela signalBorte matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk61% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

UD Leiria vs Tondela FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 1–1 · 39% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

UD Leiria vunnet 39%,Uavgjort 29%,Tondela vunnet 32%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.43 · Over 2.5 44% · Current selection Under