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FIN Finland Kolmonen · Fixture ·

HPS II vs LPS

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–35.48 expected goals
Away form
Home win29%
Draw21%
Away win50%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 50% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win50% selection probability
Projected score2–3HPS IILPS
Expected goals5.48Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over91% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes86% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
29% / 21% / 50%Match resultAway win50%2.00
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (21.1%)Double chance1278.9%1.27
Over 91% · Under 9%Goals 2.5Over91%1.10
Yes 86% · No 14%Both teams scoreYes86%1.16
5.48 total expected goalsCorrect score2–3
9.9 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
HPS II win29%3.45
Draw21%4.76
LPS win50%2.00

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

HPS II2.23

Home share of expected goals 40.7%

Total expected goals5.48Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 91% · Under 9%

LPS3.25

Away share of expected goals 59.3%

Projected score2–3BTTS splitYes 86% · No 14%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

HPS II

0.40pts / match
Played5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Points2

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 5/5

Away-context · form sequence

LPS

1.80pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Points9

SignalAway won 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
29%
Win probability excluding draw
50%
2
Points from supplied form
9
2.23
Expected goals
3.25
HPS IILPS
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01HPS II signalHome matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02LPS signalAway won 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk50% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 21%.

Match questions

HPS II vs LPS FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 2–3 · 50% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

HPS II win 29%,Draw 21%,LPS win 50%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 5.48 · Over 2.5 91% · Current selection Over