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URY Uruguay Reserve League · Final ·

CA River Plate Reserves vs Defensor Sporting Reserves

Prediction review

Home form
Final score3–3Forecast 1–2
Away form
Home win25%
Draw24%
Away win51%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 51% selection probability
Prediction Lost
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win51% selection probability
Projected score1–2CA River Plate ReservesDefensor Sporting Reserves
Expected goals3.53Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over68% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes62% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
25% / 24% / 51%Match resultAway win51%1.96
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (24.4%)Double chance1275.6%1.32
Over 68% · Under 32%Goals 2.5Over68%1.47
Yes 62% · No 38%Both teams scoreYes62%1.61
3.53 total expected goalsCorrect score1–2
9.7 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.9%Largest probability gapDefensor Sporting Reserves winDifference+1.4 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
CA River Plate Reserves win25%4.003.5025.5%-0.5 pp
Draw24%4.173.6024.8%-0.8 pp
Defensor Sporting Reserves win51%1.961.8049.6%+1.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

CA River Plate Reserves1.14

Home share of expected goals 32.3%

Total expected goals3.53Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 68% · Under 32%

Defensor Sporting Reserves2.39

Away share of expected goals 67.7%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitYes 62% · No 38%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

CA River Plate Reserves

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

Defensor Sporting Reserves

1.60pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Points8

SignalAway unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
25%
Win probability excluding draw
51%
7
Points from supplied form
8
1.14
Expected goals
2.39
CA River Plate ReservesDefensor Sporting Reserves
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01CA River Plate Reserves signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Defensor Sporting Reserves signalAway unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk49% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 24%.

Match questions

CA River Plate Reserves vs Defensor Sporting Reserves FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–2 · 51% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

CA River Plate Reserves win 25%,Draw 24%,Defensor Sporting Reserves win 51%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.53 · Over 2.5 68% · Current selection Over