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MWI Malawi Super League · Fixture ·

Moyale Barracks vs Mighty Wanderers

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–22.26 expected goals
Away form
Home win17%
Draw27%
Away win56%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 56% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win56% selection probability
Projected score1–2Moyale BarracksMighty Wanderers
Expected goals2.26Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under61% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo61% for the selected side
Expected corners8.2Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
17% / 27% / 56%Match resultAway win56%1.79
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Moyale Barracks win (16.9%)Double chanceX283.1%1.20
Over 39% · Under 61%Goals 2.5Under61%1.64
Yes 39% · No 61%Both teams scoreNo61%1.64
2.26 total expected goalsCorrect score1–2
8.2 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.5%Largest probability gapMighty Wanderers winDifference+0.7 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Moyale Barracks win17%5.885.2517.1%-0.1 pp
Draw27%3.703.2527.6%-0.6 pp
Mighty Wanderers win56%1.791.6255.3%+0.7 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Moyale Barracks0.68

Home share of expected goals 30.1%

Total expected goals2.26Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 39% · Under 61%

Mighty Wanderers1.58

Away share of expected goals 69.9%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitYes 39% · No 61%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Moyale Barracks

1.80pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn3Losses0Points9

SignalHome unbeaten 5/5

Away-context · form sequence

Mighty Wanderers

1.80pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn3Losses0Points9

SignalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
17%
Win probability excluding draw
56%
9
Points from supplied form
9
0.68
Expected goals
1.58
Moyale BarracksMighty Wanderers
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Moyale Barracks signalHome unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Mighty Wanderers signalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk44% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Moyale Barracks vs Mighty Wanderers FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–2 · 56% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Moyale Barracks win 17%,Draw 27%,Mighty Wanderers win 56%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.26 · Over 2.5 39% · Current selection Under