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ENG England National League · Round 1 ·

Altrincham vs Southend

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–22.47 expected goals
Away form
Home win26%
Draw29%
Away win45%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 45% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win45% selection probability
Projected score1–2AltrinchamSouthend
Expected goals2.47Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under55% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo52% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
26% / 29% / 45%Match resultAway win45%2.22
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Altrincham win (26.3%)Double chanceX273.7%1.36
Over 45% · Under 55%Goals 2.5Under55%1.82
Yes 48% · No 52%Both teams scoreNo52%1.92
2.47 total expected goalsCorrect score1–2
10.2 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Altrincham win26%3.85
Draw29%3.45
Southend win45%2.22

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Altrincham0.95

Home share of expected goals 38.5%

Total expected goals2.47Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 45% · Under 55%

Southend1.52

Away share of expected goals 61.5%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitYes 48% · No 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Altrincham

1.80pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Points9

SignalHome won 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

Southend

1.80pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Points9

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
26%
Win probability excluding draw
45%
9
Points from supplied form
9
0.95
Expected goals
1.52
AltrinchamSouthend
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Altrincham signalHome won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Southend signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk55% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Altrincham vs Southend FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–2 · 45% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Altrincham win 26%,Draw 29%,Southend win 45%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.47 · Over 2.5 45% · Current selection Under