Every verified call stays in the record.
Review each prediction market separately. Every figure compares calls made before kickoff with confirmed match data and includes both hits and misses.
Recent verified Genaues Ergebnis sample47latest settled predictions
Won / lost5 / 42pushes excluded from the rate
Exact-score hit rate11%
Average selected probability13%shown before kickoff
Calibration gap-2.5 pphit rate minus stated probability
Review window07. Aug. 2026 — 07. Aug. 2026recent sample, not a lifetime claim
Confidence check
One Genaues Ergebnis call per completed matchDoes confidence match outcomes?
Selected probabilitySampleAverage statedActual hit rateDifference
Below 10%109%0%-9.1 pp
10–14%2512%20%+7.9 pp
15–19%1017%0%-16.8 pp
20% and above229%0%-29.3 pp
These figures cover the latest 47 settled Genaues Ergebnis predictions, up to a maximum of 200. Small groups can move sharply and do not guarantee future results.
01
Set before kickoff
Each prediction and probability is recorded before the match starts.
02
Show sample size
Hit rate is displayed with the number of completed predictions and the exact review window.
03
Keep the misses
Finished match pages show the original prediction alongside the final result.
04
Respect calibration
A useful probability should match outcomes over enough comparable forecasts, not just sound confident.