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NLD Niederlande - Eredivisie · Spiel ·

FC Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score2–12.93 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg48%
Unentschieden27%
Auswärtssieg25%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 48% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg48% selection probability
Projected score2–1FC GroningenFortuna Sittard
Expected goals2.93Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Über56% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenJa56% for the selected side
Expected corners11.0Über 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
48% / 27% / 25%SpielergebnisHeimsieg48%2.08
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Fortuna Sittard win (25.3%)Doppelte Chance1X74.7%1.34
Über 56% · Unter 44%Goals 2.5Über56%1.79
Ja 56% · Nein 44%Beide Teams treffenJa56%1.79
2.93 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis2–1
11.0 expected match cornersEckenÜber 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nein snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFaire Quote
FC Groningen win48%2.08
Unentschieden27%3.70
Fortuna Sittard win25%4.00

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FC Groningen1.85

Heim share of expected goals 63.1%

Total expected goals2.93Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Über 56% · Unter 44%

Fortuna Sittard1.08

Auswärts share of expected goals 36.9%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 56% · Nein 44%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

FC Groningen

2.00pts / match
Gespielt5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punkte10

SignalHeim unbeaten 4/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Fortuna Sittard

1.40pts / match
Gespielt5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Punkte7

SignalHeim matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
48%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
25%
10
Points from supplied form
7
1.85
Expected goals
1.08
FC GroningenFortuna Sittard
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FC Groningen signalHeim unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Fortuna Sittard signalHeim matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk52% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

FC Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 2–1 · 48% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FC Groningen Gewinn 48%,Unentschieden 27%,Fortuna Sittard Gewinn 25%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.93 · Über 2.5 56% · Current selection Über