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NLD Netherlands Eerste Divisie · Kamp ·

Ajax Reserves vs Helmond Sport

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score1–12.78 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier39%
Uavgjort28%
Borteseier33%
Full model forecastHjemmeseierTier A · 39% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier39% selection probability
Projected score1–1Ajax ReservesHelmond Sport
Expected goals2.78Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over53% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerJa57% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
39% / 28% / 33%KampresultatHjemmeseier39%2.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28.4%)Dobbel sjanse1271.6%1.40
Over 53% · Under 47%Goals 2.5Over53%1.89
Ja 57% · Nei 43%Begge lag scorerJa57%1.75
2.78 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
10.2 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nei snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRettferdig odds
Ajax Reserves win39%2.56
Uavgjort28%3.57
Helmond Sport win33%3.03

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Ajax Reserves1.49

Hjemme share of expected goals 53.6%

Total expected goals2.78Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 53% · Under 47%

Helmond Sport1.29

Borte share of expected goals 46.4%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 57% · Nei 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Ajax Reserves

0.00pts / match
Spilt5Wins0Drawn0Losses5Poeng0

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

Borte-context · form sequence

Helmond Sport

1.00pts / match
Spilt5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Poeng5

SignalHjemme failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
39%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
33%
0
Points from supplied form
5
1.49
Expected goals
1.29
Ajax ReservesHelmond Sport
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Ajax Reserves signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Helmond Sport signalHjemme failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk61% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Ajax Reserves vs Helmond Sport FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 1–1 · 39% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Ajax Reserves vunnet 39%,Uavgjort 28%,Helmond Sport vunnet 33%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.78 · Over 2.5 53% · Current selection Over