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SCO Scotland Premiership · Round 1 ·

Rangers vs St Mirren

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–12.89 expected goals
Away form
Home win64%
Draw23%
Away win14%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 64% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win64% selection probability
Projected score2–1RangersSt Mirren
Expected goals2.89Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over55% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo59% for the selected side
Expected corners10.5Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
64% / 23% / 14%Match resultHome win64%1.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes St Mirren win (13.6%)Double chance1X86.4%1.16
Over 55% · Under 45%Goals 2.5Over55%1.82
Yes 41% · No 59%Both teams scoreNo59%1.69
2.89 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1
10.5 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Rangers win64%1.56
Draw23%4.35
St Mirren win14%7.14

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Rangers2.29

Home share of expected goals 79.2%

Total expected goals2.89Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 55% · Under 45%

St Mirren0.60

Away share of expected goals 20.8%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 41% · No 59%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Rangers

0.80pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Points4

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

St Mirren

2.00pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10

SignalAway unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
64%
Win probability excluding draw
14%
4
Points from supplied form
10
2.29
Expected goals
0.60
RangersSt Mirren
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Rangers signalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02St Mirren signalAway unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk36% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 23%.

Match questions

Rangers vs St Mirren FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 64% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Rangers win 64%,Draw 23%,St Mirren win 14%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.89 · Over 2.5 55% · Current selection Over