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USA USA USL Championship · Partita ·

Orange County SC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score2–13.24 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa43%
Pareggio26%
Vittoria ospite30%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 43% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa43% selection probability
Projected score2–1Orange County SCTampa Bay Rowdies
Expected goals3.24Apertura match profile
Goals 2.5Sopra63% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnano64% for the selected side
Expected corners9.5Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
43% / 26% / 30%Esito partitaVittoria casa43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.4%)Doppia Chance1273.6%1.36
Sopra 63% · Sotto 37%Goals 2.5Sopra63%1.59
Sì 64% · No 36%Entrambe le squadre segnano64%1.56
3.24 total expected goalsRisultato esatto2–1
9.5 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityQuote eque
Orange County SC win43%2.33
Pareggio26%3.85
Tampa Bay Rowdies win30%3.33

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Orange County SC1.86

Casa share of expected goals 57.4%

Total expected goals3.24Apertura

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 63% · Sotto 37%

Tampa Bay Rowdies1.38

Trasferta share of expected goals 42.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 64% · No 36%Match profileApertura
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Orange County SC

2.20pts / match
Giocate5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Punti11

SignalCasa unbeaten 5/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Tampa Bay Rowdies

2.00pts / match
Giocate5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punti10

SignalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Vinta probability excluding draw
30%
11
Points from supplied form
10
1.86
Expected goals
1.38
Orange County SCTampa Bay Rowdies
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Orange County SC signalCasa unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Tampa Bay Rowdies signalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Orange County SC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 2–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Orange County SC vinta 43%,Pareggio 26%,Tampa Bay Rowdies vinta 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.24 · Sopra 2.5 63% · Current selection Sopra