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USA USA USL Championship · Partita ·

Monterey Bay FC vs New Mexico United

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score1–22.53 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa39%
Pareggio27%
Vittoria ospite34%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 39% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa39% selection probability
Projected score1–2Monterey Bay FCNew Mexico United
Expected goals2.53Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sotto54% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo53% for the selected side
Expected corners8.8Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
39% / 27% / 34%Esito partitaVittoria casa39%2.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (27.2%)Doppia Chance1272.8%1.37
Sopra 46% · Sotto 54%Goals 2.5Sotto54%1.85
Sì 47% · No 53%Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo53%1.89
2.53 total expected goalsRisultato esatto1–2
8.8 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin12.1%Largest probability gapNew Mexico United winDifference+1.6 pp
OutcomePronosticoQuote equeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Monterey Bay FC win39%2.562.2040.5%-1.5 pp
Pareggio27%3.703.3027%0.0 pp
New Mexico United win34%2.942.7532.4%+1.6 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Monterey Bay FC0.85

Casa share of expected goals 33.6%

Total expected goals2.53Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 46% · Sotto 54%

New Mexico United1.68

Trasferta share of expected goals 66.4%

Projected score1–2BTTS split 47% · No 53%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Monterey Bay FC

0.20pts / match
Giocate5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Punti1

SignalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

New Mexico United

2.60pts / match
Giocate5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Punti13

SignalCasa failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
39%
Vinta probability excluding draw
34%
1
Points from supplied form
13
0.85
Expected goals
1.68
Monterey Bay FCNew Mexico United
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Monterey Bay FC signalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02New Mexico United signalCasa failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk61% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Monterey Bay FC vs New Mexico United FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 1–2 · 39% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Monterey Bay FC vinta 39%,Pareggio 27%,New Mexico United vinta 34%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.53 · Sopra 2.5 46% · Current selection Sotto