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BGR Bulgarien - 1. liga · Kamp ·

Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–13.02 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr52%
Uafgjort25%
Udesejr22%
Full model forecastHjemmesejrTier A · 52% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmesejr52% selection probability
Projected score2–1Botev PlovdivSpartak Varna
Expected goals3.02Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over58% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerJa55% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
52% / 25% / 22%KampresultatHjemmesejr52%1.92
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Spartak Varna win (22.2%)Dobbeltchance1X77.8%1.29
Over 58% · Under 42%Goals 2.5Over58%1.72
Ja 55% · Nej 45%Begge hold scorerJa55%1.82
3.02 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
9.7 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Botev Plovdiv win52%1.92
Uafgjort25%4.00
Spartak Varna win22%4.55

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Botev Plovdiv2.03

Hjemme share of expected goals 67.2%

Total expected goals3.02Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 58% · Under 42%

Spartak Varna0.99

Ude share of expected goals 32.8%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 55% · Nej 45%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Botev Plovdiv

1.40pts / match
Spillet5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Point7

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

Ude-context · form sequence

Spartak Varna

2.00pts / match
Spillet5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Point10

SignalHjemme clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
52%
Vundet probability excluding draw
22%
7
Points from supplied form
10
2.03
Expected goals
0.99
Botev PlovdivSpartak Varna
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Botev Plovdiv signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Spartak Varna signalHjemme clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk48% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmesejr · Projected score 2–1 · 52% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Botev Plovdiv vundet 52%,Uafgjort 25%,Spartak Varna vundet 22%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.02 · Over 2.5 58% · Current selection Over